Melissa, with maximum winds of 70 mph and stronger gusts, should attain hurricane status later Oct. 25 and become a major hurricane by Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said Saturday morning. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its winds reach 74 mph.

After it lashes the Caribbean this weekend, there’s still uncertainty about where the storm will go next. Here are the scenarios, one day at a time.

Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to strengthen into a hurricane, threatening the northern Caribbean with massive rainfall and life-threatening flooding

Melissa is the fifth hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, joining Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto and Imelda.

Melissa intensified Saturday afternoon into a Category 1 hurricane. It will continue to strengthen before making landfall as a Major Category 4 hurricane in Jamaica on Tuesday. The storm will drop two to three feet of rain on the island, creating catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Tropical Storm Melissa is nearly stationary in the central Caribbean, with forecasters warning it could soon strengthen and brush past Jamaica as a powerful hurricane.

The base commander on Saturday expanded a previous evacuation order to include “non-mission-essential U.S. citizens.”

Haiti is expected to see catastrophic flash floods and landslides early next week causing “extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation of communities.” The southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the border of the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince, was placed under a hurricane watch and a tropical-storm warning.