Silver compared Trump's win to George Bush's victory in 2004, which was a turning point for the Democratic Party ...

Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new ...

The pollster released a long blog post detailing why Trump won and took down his election model, which had predicted a Harris win.

All 435 seats are up for grabs, with 218 needed to win a majority. Entering the 2024 election, Republicans hold a slim ...

Trump loses but wins the popular vote and we read a million opinion pieces about how actually the Electoral College saved ...

The polls are open, and investors are in wait-and-see mode to find out whether Harris or Trump will win — and how long it'll take to get a clear outcome.

The polls are open, and investors are in wait-and-see mode to find out whether Harris or Trump will win — and how long it'll take to get a clear outcome.

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris enter the final frantic stretch of the campaign with less than 48 hours until Election Day. A ...

The bottom line is that modern pollsters are trying to correct for known forms of possible bias in their samples by making subjective adjustments to the data. If their judgments are correct, then ...

A Harris popular vote plurality of less than 2 percent, Mr. Silver estimates, has only a 16 percent chance of producing a Ms. Harris electoral vote majority ... It’s possible, as New York Times ...

In recent elections, Democratic candidates have needed a bigger national lead than this to prevail in the Electoral College. President Biden won the popular ... and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin ...

Elections have been closer ever since, including the races in 2000 and 2016 where the Democrat won the popular vote but fell short in the Electoral ... and its founder, Nate Silver, penned a ...